Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 10 May 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Examination of EU Fiscal Rules (Resumed): Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

I do not have precise numbers but many countries have been compliant most of the time. They are the countries with low debt and there is no problem there. The interesting case is the countries that have not been compliant. There are several such countries and they are the ones that currently have relatively high debts. That is a concern because they are taking far more fiscal risk but all those in the monetary union are affected by that. Those countries include very large states, such as Italy. That has been the risk.

In terms of enforcement, there are several complicated mechanisms. The Commission does analysis and, ultimately, the member states have to decide what to do about it. There is a general sense that there has been a degree of forbearance. Countries that were breaking the rules have not been sanctioned for it, essentially due to various political reasons. The 2011 reforms attempted to bring in sanctions and fines and all kinds of things but they have never been applied and there is a big question regarding whether that would be credible. In some ways, the picture is sometimes better than people think. Ultimately, there is a significant amount of compliance but it is the hard cases that have not necessarily been solved. That is what the Commission is trying to do by making the rules more enforceable, having a simpler rule and trying to increase national ownership.

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