Dr. Eddie Casey:

I will deal with the first part, what it will mean for Ireland. Deputy Doherty said earlier that the national spending rule we advocate putting into legislation would represent a further bind. The reality is the new EU fiscal rules would not be any bind on Ireland. It looks like Ireland will fall completely out of the focus of the rules and would be more or less left to our own devices. The only thing that would bind us is a guiding structural primary balance that the European Commission would put down in writing for us, however it does not look like it would have any real enforcement. The reality is that Ireland would have the 3% deficit limit and the 60% ceiling on debt. If Ireland was to breach those we might enter into some kind of enforcement again but it looks like that is not expected for the long term. That is why we are talking about a national spending rule. We are now at a point where Ireland has, after well over a decade, gotten out of a crisis and been able to reduce its debt ratio to reasonably normal levels compared to other economies. It looks like we are managing to eke out good budgetary surpluses for the coming years. We are now in a position where we can say we are able to stand on our own feet again. What will we do with this new budgetary environment we find ourselves in? It is up to Ireland to set out a path that lots of economies would follow if they were managing their budgetary positions sensibly in line with what they think will be growth in revenues in the medium term, growth in the economy, and how they can do it in a sustainable way. That is why the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council advocates these things because the EU fiscal rules will not be a bind on Ireland. There will be a few things that will be advocated for. We will do annual reports looking at whether Ireland is complying with these things. By all means Ireland more than likely will be so it is up to us to manage the excess corporation tax receipts we will be getting in, and the dangers around that potentially reversing in a year.

If it were to suddenly disappear, we would end up in a very different position. It is about how these things are managed, looking much further ahead and using the opportunity of longer-term planning. This work will be required to consider where Ireland will be ten years from now, to use that as a framework to identify the type of resources there will be for each Department and to ask what the Departments will do with those resources. It is a tremendous opportunity to think about how we plan for the future.