Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 9 May 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Defence

Hybrid Threats and Threats to the National Infrastructure: Institute of International and European Affairs

Dr. Barry Colfer:

I thank the contributors. I will start with Deputy Stanton's remarks. I think I noted 11 different themes. I will pick up as many of them as I can and I will bounce a few of them on to poor Mr. FitzGerald because he is the expert when it comes to matters of cyber and security in general.

The Deputy asked if we are in a war. War is traditionally declared. We are certainly being attacked. The whole West is being attacked and our values are being attacked. I do not want to make any great statements regarding whether we are in a war but we are certainly not absent from the conflict that is happening in our neighbourhood and that has been visited on our neighbours. As to whether attacks have been deterred, I can say two things certainly. I obviously cannot provide any details but it is widely known that there have been close calls throughout Europe and sustained attempts by, as members will know from reading Mr. FitzGerald's paper, actors that are sponsored by the Russian authorities, the various hacking collectives that are now household names. You are not necessarily going to get hacked by somebody sitting in the Kremlin but someone sponsored by it.

Regarding elections, which the Deputy raised and also came up in a previous contribution, this really is an area where the entire West, including Ireland, is vulnerable. I do not want to go over the same territory too much but I would restate the fact that Irish elections are very involved and are, let us be honest, relatively civilised. We have very robust and inclusive debate in Ireland compared with some other places but that is extremely precious and extremely fragile. We have talked about the national grid, the HSE and financial services. All these things are extremely valid to protect but every bit as important is obviously our democratic discourse and our fully free and fair and involved elections.

Regarding the hybrid centre of excellence in Finland, I know a small bit about it but I will bounce that one to Mr. FitzGerald because I think he can speak more eloquently about it.

Regarding what Deputy Stanton said about the offensive part of the recommendations - no pun intended - in terms of microgeneration, I will defer to the Deputy and his knowledge on the matter. The point we are trying to get at in the paper is that one way Ireland will be more independent, more secure and more resilient in terms of our energy security but also in terms of the transition to net zero is to diversify into as many forms of energy as possible in order to move away from fossil fuels. One progressive and inclusive way is through supporting homes, as Deputy Cronin said, to be able to access microgeneration through solar panels. That is not a major part of the paper so I will not dwell too much on it.

The Deputy asked if we should put more money into these matters. That is an easy one for me because I can say in good conscience that that is something for policymakers. Our attempt here is to paint a picture and to identify some of the weaknesses and some of the options. What I can say is that picking up any of the challenges that are there and closing the gaps would of course require resources but it would also require leadership, expertise and intelligence.

I am very interested in the question about co-operation between the military and civilian areas and what can be done there. That is explicitly in the paper as one of the recommendations so I am going to ping that one on to Mr. FitzGerald as well.

The ninth issue the Deputy raised was neutrality and the triple lock. I can say comfortably that this is not actually about that. However, that is a very interesting debate that we very much hope to continue to contribute to as part of the institute and on behalf of the IIEA. Here, we are talking about vulnerabilities to our communities, society at large and to businesses and the policy decisions that could be made to protect the citizenry. That obviously interacts and is in the same space as the debate about neutrality but I contend that it is not related to this paper. That is for future papers. I can also refer to an excellent paper by Professor Patrick Keatinge that the IIEA produced before Christmas on the European neutrals, that is, the remaining depleting club of neutral countries left within the EU.

I take away what the Deputy said about it not being boots on the ground but fingers on keyboards. That is absolutely the case. I hope much more of what we have said has already landed but if nothing else lands, let it be that. The very nature and character of warfare has evolved so much. Boots on the ground, armaments, tanks and the rest are very much a part of the tragic and horrific war that is taking place but this is also happening on both sides, both from the aggressor and the defender. There are very heroic accounts of people in Ukraine and in adjacent countries with technical skills who are also helping to defend and protect. The hybrid nature of warfare is laid bare so vividly in the tragic context in Ukraine.

AI bots are highly significant. I hope that might be for another presentation because it is a part of the puzzle here.

Deputy Cowen asked about capacity, funding and expertise. I would say two things in that regard. It certainly is not cheap. However, not only is it vitally important to protect the citizenry and our infrastructure but also I keep going back to the point regarding our precious institutions and ways of doing politics and public policy. There is an opportunity there. We are in the midst of a transition, as I already mentioned, away from a certain way of doing business, away from fossil fuels and towards a greener economy. There are certainly opportunities for really good high-quality employment, for example around what Deputy Cronin raised about solar panels. We also need an army of people to protect and defend the digital infrastructure in the country. Let us never have a HSE attack again. Let us ensure the subsea cables are protected. People have to do that and there is an opportunity to train people with really good quality employment and skills. As we are celebrating the European Year of Skills, we are out for our great universities and technological universities.

Deputy Cronin asked where this should sit. I am a little ambivalent as to which part of Government or which Department should be responsible. It is very clear from knowing a good bit about politics and public policy in Ireland, and a decent amount about other European countries, that there probably is something to be done in Ireland about communication between the different entities that would be relevant. Ireland is a relatively small country, as we all know too well. There is a great opportunity here for replication or communication deficits. I am ambivalent as to who does it but I certainly feel there is an opportunity here to ensure there is a shared mission, a shared understanding and good communication between relevant entities.

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