Dr. Barry Colfer:

Gabhaim buíochas leis an gCathaoirleach agus leis na daoine uaisle. Mar stiúrthóir taighde san Institiúid Gnóthaí Eorpaigh agus Idirnáisiúnta, táim an-bhuíoch an deis a thapú a bheith leis an gcomhchoiste inniu chun cúrsaí tábhachtacha polaitiúla a phlé. I thank the committee for the opportunity to address it on behalf of the Institute of International and European Affairs, IIEA. The IIEA is a public policy and international affairs think-tank in Dublin. Through a co-ordinated programme of research and events, we seek to contribute to public discourse across a wide range of matters and subjects that are of public interest and which I believe are of interest to this committee. This relates to, but is not limited to, EU policy and relations, economics, digital policy, development matters, climate and energy, foreign policy, health, justice, disability, UK-Irish relations, and indeed security and defence policy.

I will speak for a few moments about the IIEA's security and defence programmes specifically before handing over to my colleague, Mr. Cian FitzGerald, who authored the paper that has been circulated to the committee. Within this part of our work, the IIEA considers issues including the EU as a security actor, the future of defence capability, future force design, and the implications of all this for how conflict happens and wars are fought. Work in this area also relates to the changing character of warfare more generally, including the use and development of artificial intelligence, AI, drone technology, quantum computing, the future of nuclear proliferation and much more. Our security and defence programme resides within the broader geopolitical context that all of our work relates to, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, EU-UK relations following the UK's withdrawal, the future of NATO, the competition for rare earth minerals and scarce resources, the rise and repositioning of China and India, the politics and relations with Africa, climate change, populism, demographic change and much more.

Given the institute's particular interest in Irish-EU relations, and the future of the EU and Ireland's role within it, the changing security and defence context within the EU and its neighbours is particularly salient for our work in this area. It raises questions relating to the EU’s attempt to become a security actor through, for example, the promulgation of the EU’s strategic compass, which is essentially the EU’s security strategy. It raises questions relating to Ireland's unique position as a neutral country within the EU's evolving security and defence environment. EU relations with NATO and how the resources of Ukraine’s forces can be replenished are also of concern to our work.

Our recent paper that Mr. FitzGerald will present shortly, Black Swans in the Grey Zone: Defending Ireland’s Energy System Against Cyber Threats, examines the threat posed to critical energy infrastructure and Irish society by hostile cyberactivities. As Russia's armed forces continue to get bogged down in its war against Ukraine, Russia may increasingly seek to utilise other means to achieve its political aims by targeting European states such as Ireland, as has been well documented. In this context, the Russian Federation may increasingly seek to undermine western support for Ukraine through the use of grey zone activities, that is, the spectrum of threats that operate above the threshold of normal global politics but that falls short of kinetic warfighting, such as cyberattacks on services crucial for the normal functioning of society in Europe. Ireland, due to its importance in global technology and communications coupled with its limited defence capabilities, may be a target of this form of aggression. This paper explores how Russia conducts cyberwarfare operations, often cloaking them so that they appear to be run-of-the-mill cybercriminality. Aside from the obvious impact this has for people and businesses, this often seeks to undermine confidence in Governments and public authorities.

Finally, this paper examines how Ireland could enhance its resilience against such attacks by using a whole-of-society approach to national defence which could enhance the ability of the State to respond to and deter grey zone aggression. We hope that a discussion and better understanding of this topic can help to inform a debate in Ireland regarding future security and defence policy. With that, I hand over to Mr. FitzGerald.