Dr. Martin Mansergh:

I agree with that. There are a lot of studies and conferences taking place. They have to deal with two scenarios. One is that we could be preparing for a united Ireland, while the other is simply that the two jurisdictions get closer together and one builds out the single Ireland economy. Perhaps I should be more explicit in respect of the point I am making. It is that there is a fine tipping point in doing that sort of useful work and clarifying issues along the way. There is a lot of interesting clarification in the book by Brendan O’Leary to which I have referred. If the Government starts taking too forward a position, that will start having political effects north of the Border. Looking at this from the loyalist or unionist perspective, there is not, at present, evidence of anything like a majority who would vote “Yes” in a border poll. Brexit does not translate into support for a united Ireland. There has been a shift towards the middle ground. Instead of being 10%, it is now nearer 20%, and that is progress. Loyalists could be forgiven for taking the perspective that there is an attempt to roll them over and that the nationalist side is trying to build up momentum through agitation and preparation, with the Government appointing a Minister for national reunification as if it is just around the corner. One needs to be careful. The great merit of the shared island initiative is that it is not aggressive or perceived as being so. It is absolutely defensible in its own right, irrespective of whether it contributes to a united Ireland. One needs to be very careful that one does not go too far in a zealous attempt.

We used to discuss this a lot in dialogue with republicans. In the late 1940s, there was a big anti-partition campaign here in Ireland. All parties came on board, including Northern nationalists. It did not shift a thing. I refer to an attempt to unite nationalists, even those abroad, such as in America, by saying the agreement commits us to a poll. It only commits to a poll in certain circumstances. We need to concentrate on building relations and connections. The report to which I referred has a significant amount of information on where economic sectors have effectively been integrated North and South. That is the better way to go. Obviously, I would change my opinion tomorrow if I could see more than anecdotal evidence. I have met and read about people from Protestant backgrounds, even people who used to be in the RIC and whose friends were shot during the Troubles, who have come around to the idea of a united Ireland, but I do not think that has acquired any critical mass so far. To my mind, the priority of the past while has been to protect what we have. We have faced a major challenge with the whole Brexit and protocol business, with suggestions of a reintroduction of some kind of border between North and South, but also our interests as a full member of the EU being prejudiced. It is to be hoped that we are getting into calmer waters on that and it will be resolved. What is needed is stability. I heard at an economic conference I attended recently that people are reluctant to invest in numbers in Belfast at the moment because they do not know what the outcome will be on Brexit, the protocol and so on, and investors hate uncertainty. Whether the news is good or bad, they would like to know what the situation is and what it is going to be for a number of years ahead. At present, they do not have that.