Dr. Karl Richards:

Mr. Spink is right. We do not go back to 2018; we actually have to go back to 1990. When the EPA runs the inventory, it goes right the way back to 1990. That is why the 2018 baseline would change. There are also changes in activity data. We are in peak forest harvesting mode for the period from 2022 to 2030 and are reflecting all of the forestry that was planted in the 1990s. There is a big question about Sitka spruce on peat soils and what do we do with that 300,000 ha where there are trees on peat soils that are not suitable. Again, this is an area I do not know much about. However, it is an area that Coillte is looking at in a significant way, as is the forestry section of the Department. They are also looking at the options for that drained land and are asking if it can be rewet. My understanding is that there are technical challenges in rewetting some of that land because it is located on quite steep inclines. We are talking about blanket bogs and hilly land. There will be technical challenges as to what we can do with that. These are all aspects of the uncertainty.

I return to the Senator’s earlier comment. These are low-hanging fruit but we also need to be able to accurately account for whatever change we make in the inventory. That is why we need to have the latest emission factors because Sitka spruce went from being a sink for carbon to being an emission source for carbon. That was supported by a single scientific paper. Again, there is probably a great deal that can be done in the context of what a second rotation of Sitka spruce would be like if we had to replant these peatland areas? What if it was replaced by a native woodland, a poplar or alder woodland or whatever. There are still a great number of uncertainties around land. This has really come to a head in the context of the changes that are being made in moving from the net-net calculation for land use, whereby land use was a sink of 1 to 2 megatons, to being a gross emissions source, which is different. We will not be subtracting the emissions from 1990, so it is not a net change from 1990 until now; it is the actual emissions. That is very challenging for us because we are moving from being a net sink of a reasonably large amount to being a very large source, that is, a source of 11 megatons, which is nearly 50% of agricultural emissions.