Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 26 October 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Post-budget 2023 Examination: Discussion (Resumed)

Mr. Niall Cassidy:

We have seen very strong growth in corporate tax receipts in the past couple of years. We are seeing that in our monthly fiscal monitor. Last year was a record year in its own right when approximately €15 billion came in. It is nearly equal to that. Last year would have been a major change even compared with a couple of years ago. We are already up at approximately €14 billion for the year to date and are likely to see record returns again this year. The Department has done significant work in this area to look at the overall volatility associated with some of those receipts. We are very mindful of it and that is exactly why the new statistic is being developed as part of the budget this year, GGB*, which I am sure the Deputy has seen. Mr. McGann's team led a paper to look at that very specific issue to identify excess receipts and build a new statistic of what public finances look like on an underlying basis when some of those windfall receipts are taken away. We are forecasting a surplus this year of approximately €1 billion. However, looking at that on the underlying basis when the corporate tax receipts are stripped out, we do not see a surplus for another two years. It makes a very big difference to the overall stance on the public finances.

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