Dr. Ciaran Kelly:

The situation with mackerel is that because there is not an international agreement, the catches are above the advice from ICES in respect of a sustainable level of catch. It means the fishing pressure on that stock is above what is sustainable in the long term. The outcome is very clear over the long term. It will reduce the productivity of the stock. The stock will ultimately decrease and ultimately will become at risk of having reduced productivity. At the moment there has been luck. The advice that ICES gives is based on productivity on average over a period. Recruitment in mackerel has been relatively good for a relatively prolonged period. We are living in a period of luck by taking those high catches at the moment. If we run out of that luck, sooner or later those levels of catches will decrease the stock size.