Professor John Doyle:

I am the vice president of research in Dublin City University. DCU is very thankful to receive an invitation to present our submission, but we decided to share our time with the ARINS project so a broader range of researchers from universities across the island and indeed, from the US and Scotland, were able to take part. We thought hearing more voices here would be better. I thank the Chair and his staff for their flexibility.

ARINS is a joint collaboration between the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame. The effort involves researchers across the entire island, North and South, and every institution there. We are nonpartisan as to what the constitution outcome should be. There are people with different views and people’s whose views I do not know. However, we are united that a referendum conducted like the Brexit referendum in the UK, where nobody knew what they were voting for or what the consequence would be, would be a disaster. No matter what happened or which way it went, it would be a disaster in either case.

Our view is that now is the time to do that research and to begin that discussion. It is established that Ireland does not control the timing of a possible referendum. That legal duty is exclusively with the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. However, under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, we are required to have a concordant referendum in this State if the British move first. We do not control the timing and there is little incentive on the British Government to do that preparation in advance. The responsibility, therefore, falls on the Irish State to do so.

There are other reasons for doing it now. In addition to the fact that we do not control the timing, we know from opinion polling that there has been a significant change in opinion inside Northern Ireland in the aftermath of Brexit. It was fairly clear from opinion polls that the nationalist community in Northern Ireland was divided more or less down the middle on the timing of a referendum on Irish unity, with approximately half of the nationalist community wanting to go slowly, to summarise it. Post Brexit, one can see, those who identify as Irish or vote for the two nationalist parties are almost unanimous in their desire for a relatively rapid referendum and upwards of 95% would vote for one, even if it was held tomorrow without that preparation.

The other significant change is the middle ground. Approximately 17% or 18% of Northern Ireland, which was almost exclusively pragmatically pro-UK membership until Brexit and identified in other ways, is now clearly from opinion polls divided three ways: those who have made up their minds to support a united Ireland, though they might vote for the Alliance Party or Green Party or whatever; those who would vote to remain in the UK; but the largest chunk of approximately 40% genuinely do not know. Opinion polls and focus groups have found that they want to know what it would look in practice. They will not vote on the basis on identity politics, by and large. They want to know about the healthcare system, the economy and the education system. There is a requirement on this State to do that preparation. For those who wish to advocate for a united Ireland, with my view based on the opinion polling, such a referendum would not pass unless people know what they are voting for, in addition to it not being wise.

Over the past two years, ARINS has published 30 full-length peer-reviewed research papers on a range of activities, including one on the governance of policing, but also on living standards, the economy and healthcare. The committee will see a selection of those today. Much as been done compared to two years ago and we are in better place. However, as has often been said in the political world, there is lots still to be done.

The Scottish Government published 1,000 pages of, effectively, a prospectus before the 2014 referendum. Nobody said it was too long - all of the complaints were that it did not have detail on currency, pensions and those issues. We certainly have lots more to do, however, there is enough there now for that debate to begin.

Certainly, in terms of the research programme within DCU, it is our view that an Oireachtas committee would be a good idea, not least because it is highly unlikely that this process towards Irish unity would take place in any one parliamentary term and, therefore, any Government of the day is unlikely to be the one to start and finish it, unless it happens very unexpectedly. Insofar as possible, all-party consensus on some of the crucial issues, for example, healthcare or economics, might be prudent as well as useful at that time.

My work as been on the subvention, which is my particular contribution. In response to Senator Currie, the question on debt is relevant here of course – that debt would remain the liability of the UK. If we chose to pay any, it would have to be because we got a better deal in some other aspect of negotiations. However, legally, no part of that would move to a sovereign Ireland. The question of pensions is much more negotiable. It has been my argument that the UK would be likely to continue to pay pensions in the same way as many people in Ireland receive a UK pension, having worked some or all of their life there. English citizens can go to the south of Spain and receive their pension. The chances of walking away from public sector pensions, in particular, would seem very unlikely. Therefore, the subvention, rather than being the often quoted £10 billion figure, is much closer to £2.5 billion to £3 billion. However, there is a debate there and our paper clarifies those issues that are up for negotiation in the aftermath.

Over the next while, the committee will hear snapshots of a range of papers. The overall message is that the time to prepare is now. That needs to be based on solid research and evidence where we can clarify issues, such as living standards, and other ones where we can simply give best practice where there is not a definitive answer. Nonetheless, information can be put into the public domain.