Mr. John Cushnahan:

I thank the committee for the invitation to speak. I will reference the most recent event. Some nationalist groupings have been campaigning for a border poll for some time now, as is their right. Those behind the campaign obviously feel their objective has, to some extent, been justified following the recent publication of the 2021 census results in Northern Ireland. However, I question the interpretation of those results and the wisdom of using the arithmetic of the religious composition of the Northern Ireland population as a major argument for seeking fundamental constitutional change at this point in time through the holding of a very premature border poll.

Before embarking on such a risky course of action, it is important for all of us to learn from the mistakes of recent and previous historical initiatives on major constitutional or institutional change, three of which I detailed in my submission. First, this island was partitioned a century ago. Two separate states were established on the basis of religious arithmetic. In Northern Ireland, political institutions were established on the basis of majority rule, which discriminated against the Catholic nationalist minority whose consent was never sought. The consequence, of course, was the Northern Ireland Troubles. If future constitutional change is to take place, it must be able to win the consent of both the nationalist majority and the unionist minority rather than a simple majority of 50% plus one.

Second, in 2016, as has been mentioned by Mr. Reidy and Senator Black, the disaster of the Brexit referendum poisoned relationships between political parties in the UK, between Britain and Ireland, and between the Irish Government and the unionist population in Northern Ireland. I agree with what has been said, and I said it in my submission, that mistake must be learned from. Before we ever go near a vote on a border poll, the electorate in both parts of Ireland must be adequately informed, not only about what they will vote on but the consequences of whatever the vote will be. I think Senator Black raised the question of how we do that and I raised it in my submission. I do not go for the idea of a citizens' assembly. The best people to do that would be those involved in an inter-university project. Many academics throughout these islands are looking at this issue. They should be brought under one umbrella and they should look at all the options people have, whether it is an continuation of the present constitutional status quo, with possible change in many institutional ways, or the different types of all-Ireland structures, such as federal, confederal and so on. A third option I raised relates to what happens if Scotland gains independence. Does that give us another different type of structure, one that is outside the present framework? We should also think outside the box. If Scotland gains independence, we could create a new European structure as a western part of the European Union. It is important to educate the electorate.

Third, in 1998, two referendums in both parts of Ireland overwhelmingly approved the Good Friday Agreement. Although it brought an end to terrorist violence, it has failed to deliver political institutions and reconciliation. We need to revisit it. In my submission, I propose an amendment to the St. Andrew's Agreement to ensure the functioning of stable political institutions in Northern Ireland. We also need to clarify the conditions for a border poll. Without stable institutions, it is difficult to understand the logic of holding a referendum on Irish unity. If we cannot unite in Northern Ireland's political institutions, how can we expect to unite Ireland? The priority should be to ensure that stable political institutions are established in Northern Ireland rather than holding a border poll.