Mr. Mark Durkan:

A wise person said that prophecy is the most gratuitous form of error, so I need to be careful. I am not sure the DUP is holding out for a second election or if DUP councillors, who face council elections next year, think they would be helped by an Assembly election in the current context. I think they might feel the public mood would not be very good. Some of them might think that even should they claw back an extra seat or two, they will not out poll Sinn Féin. Even if they got an equal number of seats, Sinn Féin would still have the right to be named First Minister. There is no difference between First and deputy First Minister, but this difference has taken on a lot of false significance, which then becomes real. I am not sure that a second election, in particular in these circumstances, would ease its problems. Maybe some of them thought that against a backdrop of Liz Truss coming in and doing the protocol Bill that an election would help if they could make the Bill part of that. I think the events of the last week have completely changed that scenario, if that was in some of their heads. My view had been that if Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng had not done what they did with this mini-budget, we would see a bit of choreography whereby Liz Truss might let it be known that she had appointed all her ministers in every department in London on the basis that they would be ready to use the powers that come to ministers of the Crown under the Northern Ireland protocol Bill, that Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP would claim that as significant assurance, and that they would probably have a few meetings with ministers to say they are ready to run and to use these powers and that they can go in on that basis, but if they are let down, the same as David Trimble, they will have the right to withdraw. That would have included telling the House of Lords that if it interfered with the Bill, the DUP would pull out. The House of Lords would be told that if it is bothered about this Bill, it is in danger of bringing down the institutions in Northern Ireland again. They would use it as leverage. They would claim victory but use it as leverage in that way. That scenario has probably been changed by events of the past few days. Liz Truss's standing probably would not work for that choreography in the way it might have done.