Dr. Michael Byrne:

We do not know the scale of landlords exiting the sector. That is important to bear in mind. There is no robust data on it. RTB figures issued recently showed a spike in the number of notices of termination issued and linked that to sale of property. However, that comes after two years of eviction bans so is exactly what we would expect. Generally speaking, the data suggest there has been a slow, moderate decline in the overall number of tenancies registered with the RTB going back to 2016. There is a danger of a knee-jerk reaction to some kind of crisis exodus at the moment. We do not know that is the case.

Second, there is a capital gains tax exemption for properties purchased between 2011 and 2014 and held for seven years. We do not know how many landlords purchased properties in those years but we know there was an additional 60,000 or so in the overall number of tenancies registered with the RTB. That means a substantial number of properties are moving into the period where they no longer benefit from the exemption, if they do not sell now. A previous policy was introduced which was destined to create a cohort of landlords who needed to exit the sector in order to benefit.

We have heard there is an informal sector with many non-professional landlords playing a huge role. That will lead to difficulties and problematic tenancies. It is inevitable. Hence we need regulation but we also hear there is a cohort of landlords who cannot cope with regulation. That is an inherent contradiction in the nature of the rental sector that we have.