Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 7 September 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion

Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

I wish to add very briefly that it points to one issue which people may not have been aware of, that is, the notion of what we call the upside risk.

We always talk of risk as a downside factor because when it hits us it hits us very bad. There is an issue, and the Deputy is correct in what he is saying, in that each year we forecast, like everybody else, what the corporation tax receipts are going to be and each year we are wildly off. This argues that there should be a plan in place, which most of us would agree with, as to what one does with the unprecedented levels of tax that come in. Otherwise, one runs into a scenario where it is just treated as an addition to current revenue and spent accordingly, instead of having some sort of a plan whereby if it goes above a certain benchmark rate of increase, we would use it for a particular once-off capital investment or whatever. In that case, if it was to fall in an unprecedented fashion, it would not affect the current expenditure base we have. Again, it is about that notion of upside risk, which we probably do not think about frequently enough.

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