Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 7 September 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

It should be borne in mind that the Irish economy is in an unusual situation relative to other economies. There are parts of the economy that have been powering ahead for many years, including during the pandemic. That means we have a higher-end trend rate of growth. Unemployment is coming down very quickly and employment is still growing. The economy is therefore performing quite well in some ways. It will be a big shock for people when they get these big bills in winter. Exactly how bad that will be will depend on what happens to prices, how it cold it is this winter and how tight energy shortages are. There is a lot of uncertainty and that is one the reasons we have said the Government should stand ready to take additional measures if things get much worse than expected but we are not quite in that position at the moment. We believe there is space to take temporary measures. What the Government has already put out there is one reference point. It is not the only number that could be chosen. However, there is also the constraint that the more money we put into the economy, the more other prices will go up. We would then just be chasing our own tails.

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