Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 7 September 2022
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Updated Economic and Fiscal Position in Advance of Budget 2023: Discussion
Dr. Tom McDonnell:
That package will be gobbled up very quickly. The previous budget would have given some increases so it partially compensates for inflation this year. There is no doubt that for households on fixed incomes, given inflation in 2022 and 2023, the quantum described by the Deputy seems to be insufficient in terms of the cost of Government purchases that are likely to increase by close to 10% to get the same stock or the same volume.
Also, in terms of social welfare, it is very likely that welfare rates will have to increase to close to 10% just to ride out the storm. With a social protection budget in excess of €20 billion, that gets you to a figure of close to €2 billion very quickly. The short answer would be that I do not believe so. However, we can do things in terms of once-off measures. Again, it is about being flexible and agile and we have the fiscal space at the moment, which is a very positive position, regardless of what Deputy Doherty thinks about corporation tax receipts. We do not know if that is going to fade away. We have been told that it will for many years and I am still concerned about it, but we have not seen it yet. In any event, I think there is fiscal space to have a temporary fund which could kick in if the economy moved into recession, for example. It would be a form of contingent fund.
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