Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 14 July 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Summer Economic Statement 2022: Discussion

Photo of Paschal DonohoePaschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

The percentage reduction is faster. All other things being equal, on our current forecasts we are still expecting our national income to grow. That is particularly important. At the start of the year the interest we were paying on our national debt for new borrowing was approximately zero and today it is 1.7%. I will note, before others make the point to me, that the 1.7% is a reduction on where we have been in the last few weeks, when it was well above 2%, but there is a hell of a difference between zero and 1.7%. Our expectation is that we will continue to see change in the sovereign bond markets as the ECB changes monetary policy in response to what is happening to inflation.

Finally, the Deputy asked a specific question about corporation tax. We will have that work complete before the budget. There are many different forecasts regarding how much our national debt and how much our corporate tax receipts could be affected by changes in the business cycle or OECD corporate tax reform. It is not always helpful for me to base our preparation on what could be the biggest figure. What we have to do is try to have a figure that we believe is a reasonable assessment regarding what the vulnerability could be, as opposed to the largest figure out there. That is work I asked the Department to do and we will have that work done by the budget because, in turn, it could influence other choices we make.

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