Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 14 July 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Summer Economic Statement 2022: Discussion

Photo of Paschal DonohoePaschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I will kick off because the Deputy opened with questions that are relevant to me.

I do not foresee any changes in our budget day parameters between now and budget 2023 being announced. At €6.7 billion, it will be the largest budget in core spending that any Government has introduced in Ireland for quite some time. However, as the Minister, Deputy Michael McGrath, has said on a number of occasions, it will be accompanied by once-off measures within 2022. That means the overall budget day package will have additional measures for 2022 on top of a very significant increase in our budget day package for 2023.

I have already acknowledged the growth in our national debt. Deputy O'Donnell is well aware of it so I will not repeat what I have said on that. If I look at the measure that matters very much to us, which is what that stock of debt looks like as a share of the value in income of the goods and services in our country, an important picture is developing. First, when and if the Government holds inside the budget day parameters that we have indicated for this year and the years to come, it means our stock of public debt will begin to fall after the very sudden increase during the era of Covid-19. According to the summer economic statement, we currently stand at a stock of debt for 2022 of €233.8 billion. As we stay inside our budget day parameters it will begin to fall as an amount of debt, which is a significant change from where we have been over the last two years, moving by 2025 to €227 billion. While that fall in the quantity of debt in itself is helpful but in real terms is not huge, it means, importantly, that our debt as a share of national income when measured as GNI begins to fall. That is the key thing for us given how high our debt is in the first place. Notably, it means that our share of debt falls from 96.5% at present to below 90% next year and to below 80% by 2025.

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