Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 13 July 2022

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Summer Economic Statement: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

In terms of whether tax measures should be targeted, that, again, is a political question for the Government and the political system. We do not take a view on it. Whatever choice is taken, it is obviously good to have as full an analysis of the impact as possible. There are some areas where we would be more concerned that we are missing bigger effects, in particular on the climate side but also in terms of Sláintecare.

The work of the pensions commission was important. Taken at face value, the commission's proposals would essentially address most, if not all, of the future rise in pension costs. Those costs are going to be very big because people are living longer.

There will also be a 50% increase in the number of people reaching retirement age. There are huge pressures there, and it is important that an adequate response is made to that. Already, the tax measures that were included are quite substantial. They may be the price that people are willing to pay to maintain the pension system as it stands. However, it warrants careful consideration and a proper debate based on the choices available. The easiest thing is to do nothing. The longer we wait, however, the more expensive it will be to fix.

Specifically on tax relief, that was not included in our own modelling either. It is a good point, and something we plan to revisit in the second wave of that modelling. The amount of tax relief will vary over time as the demographics of the population change. Pensioners are not taxed in the same way as people of working age, so there is also an effect to be built in there too. We did not look at the public sector pensions particularly well either because of a lack of information. There is work that can be done to improve the model. I think we will do that when we next revisit the modelling.

On sustainability, the Senator is correct that these things must be seen in a wider context, including climate. There is the cost of trying to avoid climate change and reduce emissions as well as mitigating its impact, especially in the Irish case, with protection against flooding and insurance risks from extreme weather. There are many things there, and that is one reason the Government needs to have a full assessment of the economic and budgetary impact of these things.

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