Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 22 June 2022

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Agriculture, Food and the Marine

Fixed-Milk Price Contracts: Discussion (Resumed)

Mr. Colin Kelly:

What we would say is that, ultimately, the market decides the price, and that is not to get away from answering the question. What we have now is futures markets which, ultimately, dictate where buyers and sellers view the market. To take the fixed-price schemes we are talking about, when they were set, that was an indication of where buyers and sellers were happy to trade, and that is invariably what drives the market. The big buyers in dairy products around the world are buying derivatives in the same way that they are buying physical product. If we look at the futures over the next 12 months, that gives us an indication of where the market is going to go. That is the best read and we would say that, ultimately, it is the market that dictates where the fixed price is.

In answer to Deputy Fitzmaurice's point, if we were doing a fixed-price scheme later on in the year, obviously, we know from our discussions with our customers where they see markets, we know with discussions from member co-operatives and with farmers where they see global milk flows going, and we look at supply and demand and see where that will take pricing versus where it is at today. Ultimately, the futures markets are the best guide to where buyers and sellers are happy to transact over the period of time into the future.

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