Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 1 June 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

As Mr. Conroy has just clarified to me, those actually reflect two things: they partly reflect higher inflation and they also reflect some other revisions. This is really the amount the tax revenue has gone up since the budget. On the outlook for tax revenue, the outturns have been very strong in the recovery. This reflects a number of factors. Higher inflation is one of the things that could contribute to that. As we said in a separate paper that came out in the week previous to this fiscal report, we have been surprised - as many people have - by the strength of income tax revenue. We believe quite a bit of this is related to the strength of the high pay-high tax sectors in the economy. There are reasons to believe that this may continue if those sectors continue to do well, but this is also a relatively recent phenomenon so it needs to be treated with some caution as well.

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