Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 11 May 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Recent Cost-of-Living Measures: Discussion

Mr. Brendan O'Connor:

There is a pattern to some of the questions today and I am just unable to answer them. Some of the questions, including those from the Deputy, would be for an energy expert or an energy economist. Again, I must apologise to the committee but this is genuinely not an area with which I am overly familiar, in terms of what determines electricity prices or energy prices in Ireland.

I would make one additional point in the context of the question of how much is the right amount of support. We must think about where the money comes from. The Government is currently running a deficit this year and is forecasting a very modest surplus next year. However, as we said in the stability programme update, if energy prices go back to the levels they were at in early March, and it is not inconceivable that they would do so - there are various scenarios in which one could see that happening - then next year's surplus is gone. The surplus would be gone simply because of higher energy prices, higher inflation in the economy and the impact they have on output. That is without any more policy measures by the Government. Meanwhile, the interest rate environment is completely changing. We have seen what happened with the Bank of England last week, and with the Federal Reserve a week or two before that. Irish bond yields which for a long time were either at zero, marginally below zero or close to zero are very close to 2% right now. The Italian bond yields are up at around 3%. We are seeing a big pick-up. The so-called "free money" era is gone. Basically, it is getting much more expensive for states to finance deficits. If we want to do more, it will have to be paid for in higher debt and higher interest and that is an important consideration in the context of policy decisions and policy choices.

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