Mr. John McCarthy:

The €3 billion is based on between 80,000 and 100,000 refugees coming over the next 12 months, which is a guesstimate rather than anything scientific, as the Deputy will appreciate. Some of the contingency will be used this year. I refer to the €2.5 billion left from the contingency and €3 billion for next year. To re-emphasise what the Minister said about 2024 and 2025, there is so much uncertainty. Will the refugees go home? Even if they do not, they will have been here for a year, so it is likely that at least some of them will enter the labour market and not be reliant on social welfare. We know that in the first 12 months the number will be something like 35,000. The majority are women and children, for obvious reasons. At the moment the concern is getting the children into school, etc.; they are not looking for jobs. Many of them are quite well qualified, however, and, over time, if they have been here for 12 or 18 months, it is reasonable to assume they will migrate, depending on social welfare, etc., to the labour market, so the cost would decline. We may have some indication in six or 12 months' time but we have nothing at the moment. That is why we did not put in anything for 2024 and 2025.