Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 4 May 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Stability Programme Update 2022: Minister for Finance

Mr. John McCarthy:

Yes. The simulation refers to a 50% increase in oil prices and a 75% increase in gas prices. The week after the outbreak of war, levels spiked and we used a scenario, which prevailed, in which prices went back to those levels. If it was to happen now, it would add about two percentage points to the inflation rate for this year, so instead of 6.75%, we would be looking at 8% or 8.5% inflation for this year, with some carryover into next year. That would wipe out the modest surplus in public finances that we expect this year. We reckon that it would take between one and two percentage points off-----

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