Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 23 March 2022
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Pre-Stability Programme Update Scrutiny (Resumed): Central Bank of Ireland
Dr. Martin O'Brien:
I reiterate that any of the issues in respect of this are unavoidable in the sense that it has to be done.
The impact on the housing market, first and foremost, will be quite significant. Obviously, there will be plans put in place - I am sure - by the Government to try to address the most immediate need of people coming into the country. As was mentioned, over the longer term and the longer that people are expected to be here, this would also feed through into the general housing demand. That would be an issue.
With regard to the labour market impact, one also has to take on board the likely demographic profile of those who are coming. It is going to be those who are most vulnerable, younger children and older people. That will have implications in that the labour market impact might not be as significant as if they were patterns of normal migration. In the context of whether this is going to be a significant issue for Europe overall, undoubtedly "Yes". The sheer scale of the numbers involved means that it is going to be a significant issue. Whether there would be a European level of response is a matter for governments and the European Council to consider. First and foremost, yes, there will be implications. There will also be implications from a public finances perspective. The broad balance, from the conversations so far, is that there would certainly be capacity, given the flexibility around the performance of the public finances to address some of these most immediate humanitarian challenges. The labour market impact pales into insignificance given the immediate humanitarian concerns.
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