Dr. Mark Cassidy:

Unfortunately, we have less of a concern than we did three months ago, but in our main outlook we still see the economy getting towards full capacity by the end of, say, 2024. The unemployment rate is falling to the mid-4% level. At that stage, the economy is operating close to full capacity. As demand increases, the risk then is there is no capacity to supply more so higher demand just feeds through, not to more output, but into higher prices. I will be clear that we do not see overheating now. We are not forecasting that it will arise but the risk of overheating develops, in essence, the better an economy does. We are forecasting the economy to do well and the risk of overheating increases as a result. We flagged that as the main medium-term risk two or three months ago. Unfortunately, events have overtaken that but it has not gone away.