Mairead Farrell (Galway West, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

I am happy to hear Mr. Cassidy say that. It is what I have been trying to say and sometimes shouting at the television. It is sometimes frustrating to hear about inflation and to hear people saying that we need to increase interest rates. It is nearly a reflexive reaction that people say without examining matters. I am delighted. I will quote Dr. Cassidy at length whenever I get the opportunity. He will be sick of me talking about him. I thank him for that. It was a nice upturn.

Predicting financial downturns is tricky. One metric that has a good predictive record is yield curve inversion. An inverted yield curve is a situation in which long-term debt is considered less risky than short-term debt of the same credit quality. In other words, it is seen as riskier to borrow short term than long term because it is expected that trouble is just around the corner. I was looking at the USA's yield curve on Monday. The five-year and ten-year yield curve was inverted, as was the three-year and ten-year yield curve. The two-year and ten-year yield curve was just 19 base points away from inversion. It seems that where the USA is concerned, the market is pricing in a high recession risk. These inversions occur against a backdrop of an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. What are the witnesses' views on higher interest rates increasing the risk of recession in the EU? What are the implications for Ireland, particularly with regard to the significant tax debt that has been warehoused and the significant number of companies experiencing cashflow problems at being at risk of going under? We saw a large construction company go bust this week. What are the implications for wage increases which, so far, have been concentrated in certain sectors where there has been strong demand, as Dr. Cassidy mentioned? We hope that will spill over into other, lower paid sectors.