Mr. Ros O'Sullivan:

I am in Krakow at the moment, not Warsaw, because not unlike the conflict we are also moving around quite a bit, this being such a fast-moving situation and crisis.

It is now a month since the crisis has escalated and the ensuing conflict has set back the country of Ukraine, economically, socially and infrastructurally by at least 20 years, according to UN estimates. The Government of Ukraine has stated that so far, the most recent estimate of the conflict is that it has caused more than $100 billion in damages. As earlier speakers mentioned, nearly one quarter of the population of Ukraine is on the move, mainly women and children. Currently, upwards of 3.5 million have left the country and crossed over into neighbouring countries and beyond to near countries and those much further afield, including Ireland. An estimated 6.5 million internally displaced persons, IDPs, are on the move inside the country. The International Organization for Migration, IOM, estimates that the number of people on the move inside Ukraine will have increased to more than 8 million by the end of this month alone. We are talking about twice the population of Ireland on the move inside or outside Ukraine. That is how astronomical this conflict is.

As has been mentioned, there is a distinct slowing down in the movement of people crossing borders from inside Ukraine right now. Roughly, only 50% of those that were crossing the borders two weeks and one week ago are currently heading for the borders, which strongly suggests that the first wave of those who are trying to leave the country has already left. The majority of the people who have come out of Ukraine so far have some resources. They have connections either in a neighbouring country or in countries close by, but this will not be the same with any subsequent waves of people departing Ukraine. If there is a spike in numbers or if the conflict continues to escalate and drives people further west, through the central west and into the far west, if these people have to cross out of Ukraine they will have little or no resources to look after themselves. They will have no travel documents whatsoever. They will likely never have been out of their region let alone the country before. Typically, they will be much older in profile, and they will not want to travel far from the border that they cross. This will bring significant hardship and stress on the receiving country's capacity to facilitate them, to house them, feed them and take care of them. Especially in the neighbouring European Union countries of Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia, the EU will have to mobilise major resources to assist these member countries in coping with a very different type of Ukrainian, as the people leaving the country will have very different and enhanced needs. Moldova is a special case and will have to be supported as well by the EU.

To date, all neighbouring countries receiving refugees have done so in an incredible spirit of camaraderie, solidarity, humanity, co-operation and kinship.

However, they are working around the clock and are supported by both state apparatus, whether civil defence, police, fire brigade, medical teams and so on, as well as civil society and a volunteer corps drawn from the public, local businesses, churches, schools and universities. This can be maintained and sustained for only a short while, as long as there are no major spikes in the numbers, which would easily overwhelm a system that is being held together by sheer good will and affinity. Inside Ukraine, people on the move are supported through local civil and administrative efforts at town and city level. Hundreds of collective centres have been established throughout central and western Ukraine and offer respite and assistance to people on the move from east to west. These people have no families to go to. The collective centres are located in community halls, kindergarten schools, primary schools, clinics and warehouses, and in many cases, they are not fit for purpose. They can accommodate anything from 20 people up to 500.

Host families are also housing people on the move but, so far, very few data are known about how many people are being hosted. It is clear that up to recent weeks, internally displaced persons have been passing through these collective centres en route to somewhere else, spending no more than a night or two, but this is changing. Fewer Ukrainians are currently crossing borders or heading to border areas and are more inclined to stop and take refuge where they can in the hope they will not have to go any further west, given they want to return to the east as soon as is practically possible. As such, these collective centres are taking on a less transient role and becoming less temporary and more permanent in nature. They require significant support and assistance in the short and medium terms. Up to now, the collective centres have been relying on the generosity of local businesses, volunteers and locally arranged self-help groups, which are poorly resourced, poorly organised and poorly co-ordinated and comprise volunteers in their entirety, so it is difficult to see how this can be sustained and maintained in its present guise. These self-help groups need training and support to form them into proper civil society groups with more capacity, reach, scale and, most important, more training, especially in regard to organisation, co-ordination, humanitarian principles and practice.

Authorities in Ukraine, whether local, regional or national, require training and sensitisation in regard to humanitarian principles and practice, especially with regard to the significant risk of diversion of humanitarian aid, given Ukraine is on a full war footing under martial law. There is a considerable need for increased and robust civil and military co-ordination in Ukraine, led and facilitated by the United Nations humanitarian agency, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs at civil-military co-ordination function. NGO and lobby groups have warned that Ukrainian citizens fleeing the conflict in their country about the acute risk of exploitation by human traffickers and this risk requires mitigation and protection measures at all host borders and in all host countries, including the central registration and vetting of all civilian volunteer first-line responders.

The Ukraine crisis is dynamic, uncertain and fast moving, and humanitarian operations and funding need to be flexible and agile to be able to shift operations to different activities, sectors and geographic areas within Ukraine as well as into the EU and Moldova as needed.