Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 9 March 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Stability Programme Update Scrutiny: Economic and Social Research Institute

Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

We have spent time in the past talking about the imbalance between supply and demand in the Irish economy as far as housing is concerned. Our estimates in the ESRI suggest we need about 35,000 units per annum to meet the structural demand for housing that exists.

Yet, we have been building, on average, between 15,000 and 20,000 units per annum during the past six or seven years. We are not even meeting the yearly requirement. That leads not only to missing out on meeting the annual requirement but also to an accumulation in the shortfall over time. As everybody knows, there is a major task in meeting the challenge that already exists in the housing market. Clearly, if there is an additional increase in the structural demand to house between 50,000 and 100,000 people due to the Ukrainian issue, that will compound the existing difficulties. Significant increases in revenues have been pledged on foot of the Government’s multi-annual commitments under the Housing for All strategy. One could argue that perhaps more money could be pledged but the fundamental problem will be the capacity to get the workers and materials required to meet that housing demand. That is where the challenge will be. It is worth remembering that the energy and other related costs we mentioned earlier are all directly affecting the housing market as they are affecting many other markets. We have seen very sharp increases in housing costs. Those directly impact the ability of the industry to provide the supply needed. It would be worth considering any measures that can fast-track the supply given the challenges that will probably exist as we go forward. We are facing a very significant challenge in that regard. I do not know if Dr. O'Toole would like to contribute.

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