Mr. Hassard Stacpoole:

We are not really sure what the NTA's modelling is. I work for Network Rail and have worked in the UK railway industry for the best part of 20 years. We use something called the passenger demand forecasting handbook, which Mr. Logue will be familiar with. That is how we identify demand. It works quite well as a model. It does have its flaws because it is perhaps more suited to cities and interurban rail than regional or rural rail. The forecasting really does come down to the level of services, as I noted in the previous answer. Frequency is the key. When Dick Fearn was managing director and we had the modernisation in the early part of the 2000s, frequency was a key and we saw massive growth in demand.

In terms of railway modelling, the first phase of the western rail corridor, the Limerick to Galway intercity route, was forecast to have 200,000 passengers within two or three years. It exceeded its predicted passenger numbers quite quickly despite a recession. In 2019, the last year before Covid, it was carrying over 550,000 passengers a year. The timetable on that is not very good. For example, my father wanted to go from Limerick to Galway last week to go to a hospital appointment. He could not get a train there and back in the time because the timetable was not conducive to allowing him to do so and the journey time is still slow and can be improved. Consequently, he got a taxi at horrendous expense.

It comes down to the service levels we are going to offer. The experience we have had everywhere so far has shown that when we put more trains on, the demand is there. Obviously in very rural areas that may not be the case. Going back to what Deputy Matthews said, where we have planning we put in more housing. In Nenagh, 140 houses are going to go right next to the station. That is going to create potentially at least 300 people travelling in to Limerick or going to Dublin. I do not think rail planning takes account of that. It is always very short-term planning rather than medium to long term. That is the problem, because we do not have that rail expertise in the NTA or in the Department to ask Irish Rail to procure rail services.