Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 16 February 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Indexation of Taxation and Social Protection System: Discussion (Resumed)

Mr. Matt McGann:

On the wider point, the Deputy raised an important matter. Previously, colleagues from the ESRI and the Nevin Economic Research Institute pointed out that indexing to wages is fiscally neutral in that the tax–GDP or expenditure–GDP ratio stays the same. However, that is based on all other things being equal in the abstract and there being no other emerging pressures. In fact, we know we have many other emerging pressures, including in respect of how Covid will play out, the structural shifts in the economy, what those shifts will mean and how Brexit will fully play out. We do not know how these will play out. We know we will have to put considerable sums aside to fund the green and digital transitions. We will probably have increased health expenditure as a result of Covid. As the Deputy rightly pointed out, there are demographic changes coming. These are among the better-known knowns. We do not yet have a good handle on some of the factors, such as the digital transition, but we do on the ageing population and demographic pressures. As the Deputy correctly pointed out, going from having four people at work for every pensioner to two will place an unsustainable demand on the system as it stands. Indexation to wages is fiscally neutral in the abstract but, as others have pointed out, there is an argument in favour of maintaining some flexibility because there are many other pressures coming down the line that will eat into our available resources. I am trying not to use the phrase "fiscal space".

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