Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 11 January 2022

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action

Carbon Budgets: Discussion

Professor Brian Ó Gallachóir:

These are great questions. Again, I will defer to Dr. Daly, Dr. Hanrahan and Dr. Styles on the individual models. With regard to my own initial reflections on the information gaps, we had not modelled this level of deep decarbonisation before across sectors. That was a key information gap at the start of the process, which we were able to shed some light on at the end of the process. While we worked intensively in those six months, we were not starting from scratch. We were building on years of modelling capability and capacity that we were able to draw on. That is extremely important and speaks to the Deputy's point about the future. As much of this work is invisible to the policy system until we come to a situation like this one, it is important that these models are resourced on a continuous basis. There are gaps and challenges. One of the key broad gaps is on the societal side. We are quite good on the technology and the economics but the societal dimension of the transformation we are talking about is the biggest gap, in my view, although others may disagree. The Deputy asked about the strengths and limitations of each of the three models. The reason there are three models is that they are focusing on very specific things and sectors with their own dynamics, inputs and outputs.

My personal view is that, although I do not know if a unified model is the right approach, we need to have some kind of bringing together of modelling capacity such as we have had in this six-month period. That has been very valuable. In this period, we have been able to show how far we can go in these sectors, but on an individual basis. There are a lot of interactions in the area of land use with regard to, for example, bioenergy on the energy side and on the agriculture side. There are a lot of interactions and a lot we could build on. What we managed to do in the six months was phenomenal. Many of the committee members have commented on it and I believe we have made a valuable contribution. We have done something solid. Modelling is never finished; it always goes on. Thinking about the Deputy's last question, that critical reflection is very important in considering the developments required to progress this work under each of the models and in taking into account more fully some of the things we were not able to take into account. There is also the question of the interaction between the different sectors. I thank the Deputy for the question. I will hand over to Dr. Daly, Dr. Hanrahan and Dr. Styles on the individual models.

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