Dr. Hannah Daly:

I thank the Deputy for the question. Transport the largest energy consumer and it is approximately equal to heat in terms of emissions from the energy system. To reach abatement levels of more than 51% for the transport sector requires that the electric vehicle target is met but also that there be a range of other solutions as well, mainly focusing on demand reduction, including elements like walking, cycling, improved public transport and, where possible, reducing trip lengths where necessary. That relates to more compact development, home working and such ideas.

The Deputy asked about transport decarbonisation ranges as proposed by the climate action plan. I should clarify that the climate action plan is a Government-led process rather than an output of the Climate Change Advisory Council. We did not recommend any particular sectoral carbon budgets or trajectories but in the modelling we did, we saw very different optimal ranges for different sectors depending on the level of abatement in the energy system. It depends on the level of decarbonisation in the agriculture system, for example. If the target for agriculture is to decarbonise by 30%, the energy system is required to do 61% to 65% by 2030. Every additional level of abatement required in the energy system gets progressively more challenging as we take the low-hanging fruit and go up the theoretical margin of abatement cost. It will require faster or more rapid adaptation.

In some of the more extreme scenarios, for example, with demand shifts and with greater than 60% abatement in the energy system required, there is the model selecting massive scrappage schemes for later in the 2020s required to make the target. It would take all the cars being sold now out of the system earlier and that amounts to much wasted capital. Approximately 55% of new cars sold last year were SUVs, and that rate is growing. It is more about reducing fossil fuel consumption as soon as possible rather than hitting a particular target for clean technology in 2030.