Professor Brian Ó Gallachóir:

I am happy to take that and I thank the Deputy for the question. There are many different possible routes between where were are now and 2030 to achieve the overall 51% emissions reduction targets. Some of them result in more emissions and some result in fewer emissions. Effectively, we looked in the analysis at all the obligations we were asked to consider. In addition to elements like compliance with the Paris Agreement, we have seen how some conflicts have already arisen with impacts on the economy, employment, competitiveness and climate justice. We also considered where we are now, as I mentioned in the opening statement. We did the analysis in 2021 and it was quite clear at that point where emissions were heading for 2021. It is now 2022 and there is a balance between the desire to mitigate and reduce emissions very quickly and the requirement for policy mechanisms to be introduced, societal dialogue and the transition taking place in a just way.

There are many factors behind what will push things in one direction or another. The reason we picked the trajectory we did and those budgets was a basis in considering all those different elements. I agree that some people have argued this is a cop-out and we should have more emissions reduction at an earlier stage. I repeat that this is the second most ambitious emissions reduction target in the world. I challenge anyone to demonstrate how we might achieve lower emissions and reduce carbon more in the first period, given where we are now and all of what is required to mobilise across society.

As was mentioned again and again, this is a societal transformation. We are not talking about tweaking or a limited emissions reduction. We are heading onto a pathway to significant emissions reductions. It may be a slightly more personal opinion, but we must also bear in mind that if we set a carbon budget in the first five years that is not achievable, it could be a very damaging process for the whole trajectory. We are aiming to get to net zero by 2050. We are aiming to significantly reduce our emissions.

We have had emissions reduction in the period 2005 to 2020 but at approximately 18% overall in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reduction, it is nowhere near what will be required in what is proposed. What is proposed is very ambitious and it could, of course, be more ambitious. The committee was conscious of its obligations in taking into account all the different obligations, some of which would push us in one direction or another. I am certainly very comfortable that what we have arrived at is the optimum. I do not know if the committee members dealing with the carbon budget have other comments.

To clarify, most of us are not on the Climate Change Advisory Council. We were brought in for the carbon budget committee.