Dr. Hannah Daly:

I am a lecturer in sustainable energy systems modelling at UCC. For this carbon budget committee process, I led the analysis of the implications of different carbon budgets on the energy system, that is, varying levels of decarbonisation of the energy system of between 51% to 70% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and the implications of alternative technology pathways or demand reduction pathways.

The Deputy asked about the greatest challenge in delivering rapid transformation. It is important first to acknowledge the energy system underpins everything we do. Currently, about 88% of our energy comes from fossil fuels, which are the overall source of CO2 emissions. That figure of 88% needs to fall to below 50% by 2030 to meet any of the targets. We need a relentless, rapid shift away from consuming fossil fuels. It is important to move the narrative and discourse away from certain technology targets, such as a minimum renewable electricity target or a minimum electric vehicle, EV, target, to rapid reductions in the consumption of fossil fuel immediately. That is what the carbon budget framework requires.

A few aspects are critical in this transformation. It will be a surprise to nobody that renewable electricity is a cornerstone of meeting the decarbonisation targets. It is not that electricity is a large source of emissions – that is mainly heat and transport - but rather that the electricity system is needed to decarbonise the rest of the system. If we do not meet our targets to rapidly roll out renewables, mainly offshore wind and solar, all these targets will be at risk. At the same time, we need to move beyond renewable electricity to new solutions. The analysis we carried out, which included a low-energy demand scenario and a more progressive technology-solution scenario, indicates we need to consider solutions such as lowering energy demand where possible, carbon capture and storage, bioenergy and novel gases as quickly as possible.

The Deputy asked about the balance across sectors and how to assess those trade-offs. We can provide insights into what pathways are possible in the energy system in terms of how quickly the energy system can decarbonise, at what cost and with what technologies and demand reductions are required, but we cannot make that judgment as to what is the best because it becomes a question of how quickly people are accepting of a change in their demands and how quickly they can take up new technology solutions. The question as to the appropriate balance across sectors is really one for policy to decide.

I will leave the question on land use to my colleagues.