Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 November 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Inflation: Discussion (resumed)

Mr. Gabriel Makhlouf:

There are probably two types of evidence that would lead me to start changing my view. One is if I saw what I described earlier as second round effects. In other words, if current inflation started to feed into wages. History has taught us that that is the beginning of a price-wage spiral. The other set of evidence is if we started to see structural change in the way economies operated and if we started to see changes in the supply chains and the way they were working - in other words, if they were not reverting to normal but were changing in some way. We expect that in 2022 we will start to see the current levels of inflation I mentioned earlier recede gradually. For one thing, a number of base effects will come out of the calculation and, it is to be hoped, as 2022 proceeds we will see a number of these bottlenecks start to get repaired. I think that next year we should see things receding. In December, the ECB's governing council will receive the latest forecasts from ECB staff on their projections, so in about a month's time we will have much more up-to-date information on which we will make our judgments.

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