Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party) | Oireachtas source

First, that modelling is very sophisticated. Some of our best people are working on it, and really good computing power and detailed data are going into it. It is not lacking sophistication. The point I was making earlier is that the assumptions around modal shift, in my mind, sometimes underestimate what is actually possible and what people will do when safe conditions are created. When the safety impediment of the current environment is removed or when the quality of the service of public transport is improved, in my experience, I have never seen the public response err on the lower side. That is the point I was making.

The other point I wish to make is that while we can always focus on the modellers or the plan, and so on, the reality is that this will be decided at a local political level. Last week, the Oireachtas debated, on Second Stage, the Road Traffic and Roads Bill 2021. I believe Second Stage is concluding this Thursday. I will make my own contribution in the closing comments. To a certain extent, it is up to the local authorities and councillors to make some of the decisions. The national policy will be framed in the new sustainable mobility plan that we are developing. To make it work, to deliver BusConnects for Limerick, Cork, Galway, Waterford and Dublin, to connect rural Ireland to bus services and give the bus primacy through our towns, requires a political commitment at a local level and that is very hard to model. It is based on how much public support we have for the scale of the transition we need to make. It is difficult to model how much vision we have, collectively, to make the change. My sense is that across all parties, that is changing and there is increased understanding that the towns that can create a beautiful public realm and a safe space around schools and can support new bus services are the towns that people are going to want to live in. They are the places that are really attractive and will attract jobs. They are the places that will get us into a virtuous cycle. I do not think we are far away from that in towns and cities right across this country. That is what I am saying. It is very hard to model how the virtuous circle works, but when it does work, it can deliver more significant changes than people expect.

The Danes and the Dutch are not different from the Irish.

Copenhagen and Amsterdam are actually wetter, colder and darker than Dublin. They were not always cycling; they changed because of political decisions in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Those cities are aiming for a 50% split in terms of active travel. I do not see why we should be any different. We are just starting a bit later. That is why I was saying the modelling might not quite pick it up, but first and foremost we need the political commitment to make it happen. That is something no one can model. That is in our hands.