Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 2 November 2021

Seanad Committee on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union

Impact of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement: Economic and Social Research Institute

Dr. Alan Barrett:

We will focus on what we are good at, if I can put it like that. I know the committee has engaged with businesses north and south of the Border and everything like that. Of course, we in the ESRI hear the very same thing, which is that all that businesses want to know is exactly what are the arrangements with which they must deal on a long-term basis, subject to these being reasonably sensible. It is about certainty and knowing what has to be done. Their view is that they will then engage and trade and do all the positive things they need to do. It is interesting to consider that the protocol is assisting with trade, as Dr. Lawless mentioned, and, in a sense, insulating Northern Ireland from the worst impacts of Brexit in terms of trade disruption. The investment should be the next wave of this. Northern Ireland should be a very attractive place to invest for people within Northern Ireland or from the Republic of Ireland or internationally. The fact that it is a place from which someone can trade into two markets should be very positive as well. However, the great misfortune in the current situation is the uncertainty in respect of the operation of the protocol. There are obvious uncertainties in respect of how this plays out immediately. There is the issue of the vote in 2024. These are unfortunate circumstances. If politicians North and South or wherever can collectively achieve greater certainty in respect of the protocol, the economic benefit of that could be considerable.

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