Mr. Basil Geoghegan:

That is a good question. Forecasting the future is always difficult. In making our assessment, we have focused on the actions of airlines. I am not sure I can understand all of those actions but I have looked at them. Some airlines are very much on the front foot because they have very low cost levels. They are pushing to put flights on and can fly at lower load factors. We are certainly seeing that. We see it in Dublin with Ryanair and in Europe with Wizz Air. In the case of other airlines, there has been more of a delay, partly, as I understand, because they have higher cost structures and cannot just put on more aircraft. In some cases, they have been waiting to see whether state supports will be provided. There has been a lot of state support given around Europe throughout the Covid crisis but some airlines are waiting to see how that will work into the future. These are some of the actions by the airlines on which we are basing our forecast.

We have also seen that while there is a propensity from the public to want to travel again, many airlines do not exist in the way they did before. Norwegian does not exist at all and a number of airlines are in the chapter 11 process. I spend a lot of my time working with airlines and, in many cases, their level of debt is far greater than ever before. They also have much less flexibility. It has been said to me by airline executives that the recovery will be demand-led, not supply-led. We will see the proof of the pudding in that regard in the coming years. They are not just going to put on flights and see whether people avail of them; they will wait to see whether the demand is there. That approach, by its very nature, means a return to greater flight numbers will take longer.

Another factor is one I see in my own business. Other than in the past 18 months, I usually travel every week as part of my work. The various technologies like Zoom and Microsoft Teams make it easier not to travel. They will not wipe out travel but their availability means that some journeys will not happen. For many companies that are focused on cost, they will at least cut their travel budgets in the next few years because they feel they can get their business done through alternative means of communication. This was a worry I had for Irish companies, in particular, during the period when we were incredibly cut off from the world. Some of it depends on what others are doing. If a company's competitor starts visiting customers, that company probably will start doing the same. Until the competitor begins those visits, the company likewise does not need to do so. That type of human interaction will take a little time to rebuild.