Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 5 October 2021

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action

Energy Charter Treaty, Energy Security, Liquefied Natural Gas and Data Centres: Discussion (resumed)

Professor Barry McMullin:

On whether there is a risk that the continued expansion of data centres will translate into further pressure for the introduction of liquified natural gas terminals, I think that is quite likely. It is a separate discussion. The instability in the grid that EirGrid is warning about this coming winter, and potentially for successive winters for several years, arises not from a shortfall in the supply of natural gas per se, but from a shortfall in firm generation capacity, which is capacity that can be dispatched on demand. The issue we face on the grid currently is a potential shortfall in firm generation capacity, which, if combined with poor weather conditions for wind and solar in the middle of winter when normal demand is high anyway, would risk an electricity generation shortfall. This would not be because of a shortage of natural gas, but simply because we do not have enough firm generation capacity. That could lead to unplanned or forced electricity blackouts, which would be a bad thing. Nobody would want that to happen. Obviously, therefore, the greater the peak demand is in the coming few winter seasons, the greater the risk that this sort of combination of circumstances could come about. Adding natural gas terminals does not change that per se. As I said, there is no immediate risk to supply though the UK and we have adequate pipeline connections to the UK to ensure that if we had the generation capacity, we would meet electricity demand.

Although properly speaking, this should not yield an argument for deployment of LNG, there is a tenuous connection in that the longer we continue this critical reliance on natural gas, especially as the Corrib field depletes, the more exposed we become to potential geopolitical disruption of gas supplies. It is not directly linked to the danger of blackouts per se, but it is true that the more electricity we use, the quicker we use it. That is to say, the more electricity demand outpaces the build-out of renewable supply in wind and solar, and especially the build-out of storage which allows us to dispatch or move around wind and solar energy in time, the more exposed we become to geopolitical disruption in gas supply. In turn, that might strengthen the argument for LNG. I still think that is a bad path to go down, but that is a separate discussion.

My apologies but I have forgotten the end of the Deputy's second question.

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