Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

My Department has done a regulatory impact analysis, RIA, on the question of ratifying CETA, which addresses the issue raised by the Deputy. I will arrange for that RIA to be circulated to committee members.

In summary, as I set out in my opening statement, since the provisional application of CETA in 2017, the benefits have been plain to see, with goods exports increasing from €953 million to €1.7 billion and service exports increasing from €1.6 billion to €2.3 billion. In April this year, we released the Copenhagen Economics report on the potential economic opportunities of the four FTAs and their forecast to have a positive effect on trade, GDP, national income for Ireland, wages and consumer prices.

With regard to potential litigation costs, which the Deputy mentioned, what we are discussing here is the ICS under CETA. I reiterate that a Canadian firm can already sue the Government for alleged unfair treatment or discrimination in our courts. This would be the case whether CETA existed or not. What CETA simply provides for is an alternative to the national courts, which is an arbitration mechanism.

Regarding potential costs, it would be a hypothetical exercise to estimate what costs, if any, would arise for the Exchequer on foot of a judgment under the ICS or to say what type of discrimination would be substantiated against the State. Equally, it is not possible to anticipate the sector of the economy or the size of the company that may pursue such a claim. As I highlighted previously, however, the State has a strong reputation for observing the rule of law and we have no record of treating inward investors unfairly or in a discriminatory manner. If anything, we are accused of the opposite. I find it hard to see, therefore, how a Canadian company would use the ICS system successfully to gain compensation from Ireland. We would have to have done something to them to merit that and it would have to be something our national courts found against them on but that the ICS found in their favour. I do not see how that would arise.