Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 22 September 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Budget 2022 Scrutiny: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Dr. Adele Bergin:

I was going to come in on the Deputy's question on Brexit. We have looked at this in more detail in some of our previous reports. It is important to note that the ultimate impact of Brexit is quite difficult to predict. Some research suggests that in the long run, Brexit may reduce the level of output in the economy by approximately 3%, but that is a long-run estimate and the Deputy's question probably refers more to the short run, which is difficult to predict. Trying to disentangle the data on Brexit impacts from those on Covid is especially challenging. In the report, the initial disruptions we had seen in the earlier part of the year have been mitigated, to some extent. There is also the possibility of challenges in some sectors occurring at the same time as opportunities for expansion in others. In our most recent report, there probably was not a huge amount on Brexit, but that is because the view has not changed. There was not a huge amount of new information on which to report.


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