Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 22 September 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Budget 2022 Scrutiny: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Dr. Eddie Casey:

I am happy to give those estimates. In 2022, the Government SES projection was for a budget deficit of €14.4 billion whereas we would have had a figure of €6.4 billion. In 2023, it had a projection of €8.1 billion and our prediction was €4.5 billion. In 2024, it predicted a deficit of €7.6 billion and our figure was €4 billion. In 2025, its figure was €7.4 billion and our figure was €3.5 billion. This was in the recovery scenario.

It is worth saying that this is not necessarily our baseline assumption. It is, rather, what we think is the most likely outcome which we felt was a reasonably plausible scenario where lots of things go in the State's favour.


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