Professor Philip Nolan:

We have had 100,000 cases between 20 June and yesterday so we are tracking just slightly ahead of the optimistic scenario, which is very good news. Our more optimistic assumptions about the Delta variant and about social mixing are therefore underpinned. We have updated those models. To reinforce what the Chief Medical Officer said, if we take the most optimistic scenario we are currently looking at, which is not unreasonable, we are just past the peak of infection and case numbers should decline from here on in. That may be happening given the data we have now.

There are important assumptions in those models that children are somewhat less likely to get this disease and less likely to transmit it. Very importantly, we also are assuming that we all adhere to those very basic measures the Chief Medical Officer has outlined, that is, self-isolation if symptomatic and so on. Modelling at the moment suggests two things, however. We appear to be following an optimistic track but if we relax on those basic measures or if children are a greater driver of infection than we anticipate, then there is the potential for an additional wave of disease, particularly-----