Professor Philip Nolan:

I will answer the question on modelling very briefly. Dr. Glynn might answer the question on vaccination. We model a range of scenarios, in order to be prudent, from what we call conservative or optimistic out to pessimistic. In advising Government recently, we had evidence that we were more likely to track the optimistic scenarios. The basis for that optimism is the very high levels of vaccination and the fact that, if we look at the population in general, even though we are getting back towards normal, people are still being very prudent in terms of their observation of the basic measures, such as handwashing, hygiene and ventilation. On that basis, it is plausible that we are past the peak of infection in this population. The most optimistic scenario shows the peak having happened in the past week of August and first week of September and case numbers starting to decline from there. That seems to be what is happening at present.