Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I thank the Deputy. I will try to cover as many of his questions as I can. As regards the Delta variant, we anticipate that we will review the situation again in the run-up to 19 July. The key question on which we do not yet have full answers is that of transmissibility and how much more transmissible is it relative to the Alpha variant or the original Wuhan or wild strain. They will say it is more transmissible by 40% to 60%. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control is going for 55%. There is a significant difference between the models at 40% and those at 60%. It is to be hoped that we will have a better idea how much more transmissible it is in a couple of weeks time.

Probably more important than that is the conversion rate, that is, the extent to which cases turn into hospitalisations and deaths, because obviously what we are trying to avoid is not the elimination of the virus, which is not possible or realistic. It is not about getting rid of all cases of the virus - that is not going to happen. It is about making sure our hospitals do not get overwhelmed and that we do not have large numbers of deaths as a consequence of Covid again. It seems to me that in England and Scotland they are taking a much more optimistic approach than we are. The Taoiseach spoke to Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, yesterday, just to get a steer from her as to what they think there. They seem to be more optimistic even though they are seeing record case numbers in Scotland and 20,000 cases a day are now being detected in Britain. They are saying that although the link between cases and hospitalisations is not broken, it is so weakened that they believe they can keep indoor dining open and may even be able to ease restrictions further on 19 July. We have our fingers crossed and are hoping and praying that they turn out to be right because if they are right, it means that the pessimistic projections of NPHET are not the ones that will be realised and it will be something closer to optimistic or central case projections which may allow us to make different decisions. However, I think we have made the right decision to pause until we have more information precisely because this is the kind of virus that spreads quickly. We found in December that we rolled back on the liberalisation of restrictions too late - the horse had bolted before we heard the stable door slam. We do not want to take that risk on this occasion. I hate saying this because people are sick of hearing it, but the next couple of weeks will tell a lot in terms of how much of a problem Delta will be for us. It is seeded across Europe and north America, as all present are aware, so we will be able to see data from that.

On the international corporate tax position, that is an area that is being led by the Minister for Finance, Deputy Donohoe. Obviously, I keep across it as I need to. We are now approaching the point where there may well be agreement at OECD level on Pillar 1 and Pillar 2, both of which could cost Ireland in terms of revenues because if profits are reallocated away from Ireland or if there is a higher rate, we will probably see a reduction in taxation and revenues. That is a potential problem for us. On balance, we think it is better to be inside the tent. Ireland is not a tax haven and we do not wish to be one or to be seen as one. That is why we think it is better for us to be inside any agreement that may be reached at international level or OECD level. We are at a very tight point on that at the moment and obviously the Minister, Deputy Donohoe, is taking the lead on it but I am very much across it.

The issue relating to freight will probably be more for the Department of Transport than for my Department but obviously we will be across it. I know the Minister for Transport, Deputy Eamon Ryan, is very ambitious about moving to hydrogen and using renewable wind to generate hydrogen which we could then use in freight, but it will take time to make that a reality, quite frankly.

On the circular economy, I am familiar with the report on it, by the way, and there are significant opportunities there. The circular economy is actually very labour intensive. Footwear, clothes, bikes and other products being renewed to extend their life cycle is good environmentally but it is also very labour intensive and there are really good opportunities for job creation in the domestic economy in embracing the circular economy. Legislation on that will be forthcoming quite soon.

On the issue of offshore, that is exactly where we see significant opportunities as well. If we can get the planning system sorted - we will do that with the marine legislation that is finally a reality - then we can really exploit enormous offshore wind opportunities which will allow for import substitution and importing less oil and gas and probably more price stability as well because the price of wind does not go up and down in the way that the price of fossil fuels does. We see that as an enormous opportunity economically and environmentally but we are really way behind where we ought to be or in comparison with England, Scotland or Portugal. That is largely down to planning issues.