Mr. Stephen Treacy:

To follow up on the point relating to energy, the projections in both scenarios project a significant increase in energy demand. Despite that, emissions from the energy industries, which is mostly power generation, will decrease by 25% by 2030. Towards the end of the projection, in 2028, 2029 and 2030, emissions are projected to start to uptick again. The demand increase is catching up and surpassing the measures there at the moment. When it comes to calculating the measures needed to meet the 51%, that will be one of the areas on which there will be focus for more action. This puts pressure on. A combination of data centres, heat pumps and so on creates a challenge in terms of meeting that target. This is not to suggest that it cannot be done. It is all about numbers at the moment. As I said, there is a 25% reduction in emissions built into EirGrid's median scenario.

In terms of credits and flexibilities, for the 2013-2020 compliance period, we have estimated that we will have exceeded our combined limit by around 12 million tonnes. If one adds up the individual annual emissions allocated for each year, which is a substantial amount at about one fifth of our annual emissions or, for example, the entire emissions from the transport sector, that is a substantial overshoot. To ensure compliance, Ireland has to have credits or annual emission allocations to meet those numbers. In that sense, it is a combination of eligible credits that have existed previously from investments Ireland has made abroad but also bilaterally purchasing credits from other countries that are meeting their targets and have a surplus of allowances they can sell to us. That trading is allowed for under the scheme.

In the context of 2030, which I think is what the Senator was referring to in regard to the flexibilities, the flexibilities available to Ireland are intended to reflect the extent to which, for example, agriculture is a big part of our emissions profile. In that sense, in per capitaterms, Ireland got a substantial portion of those flexibilities. Ireland is allowed 26.8 million tonnes flexibility in regard to accounting for credits from the LULUCF sector and approximately 19 million tonnes in respect of a flexibility around the numbers being transferred from the ETS to the non-ETS, which allows for an additional 19 million tonnes of emissions in the non-ETS sector. Those are the flexibilities available to us. The reasoning behind those was in regard to the portion of our agriculture in our emissions primarily. That was done post the cost-effectiveness analysis. That is the rationale.

In terms of the future, I cannot comment. There is nothing we know yet regarding what the future levels will be.