Dr. Barra Roantree:

I thank the Deputy for her question. The ESRI report published this morning was authored by my colleagues, led by Professor Kieran McQuinn and Dr. Conor O'Toole. It highlights the incredible performance of exports over recent months. That is what kept growth so strong over recent months as measured by GDP, although we all know of the problems and issues with that. That growth looks like it is set to continue. That is what is driving the very high growth figures in the report.

With regard to over-reliance on corporation tax, this is something we highlight in the report. The most striking illustration of this is the fact that just ten companies were responsible for over 50% of those receipts in the latest year for which we have data, 2019. Many of those firms make a vast contribution to the real economy as well as to the Exchequer coffers. We do not know exactly which companies these are. We may be able to guess. I direct the committee towards the work of Seamus Coffey in that regard. He put some interesting information together and has identified which firms he believes some of those big players are. I direct the committee towards that work in respect of the specific companies involved. Many of these companies are also linked to the real economy. This does not get us away from the fact that, by virtue of so much money coming from so few companies, we are left in a position whereby something outside of our control may happen due to the actions of, for example, the US Government which could significantly affect the amount of revenue collected. That is a real cause for concern and is something we highlight in the report. It is something we should seek to address in the coming years.

I will highlight an additional revenue vulnerability which does not get as much attention. I mentioned it in the opening statement. We currently raise approximately €3.5 billion a year from taxes on motor fuels. That is linked directly to the burning of fossil fuels. We know the plan is for us to transition towards electric vehicles. The official Government strategy is not to burn the fuel which gives rise to the excise duties and other taxes that are responsible for this revenue. There is therefore a real need to look at how to move away from those revenues and at how to replace them. It is quite a substantial amount of revenue to replace before we even get on to the question of the likely increased demand for public services in the coming decades, which Dr. Collins highlighted in his statement, and how to pay for them. There is a real challenge before us in the years ahead. It is not just because of a potential over-reliance on corporation tax but that is an important factor.