Mr. Seán McCabe:

The fines are an important consideration, but to echo Dr. Capozza, the opportunity cost will be much more critical. It is also worth noting that the Paris Agreement has within it a ratchet mechanism, which I hope will come into play at the Conference of the Parties, COP, this year and again in 2026 more or less. Under the mechanism, every country or, in Ireland's case, the EU will have to increase its nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement. Not only are we not hitting our current targets, but those targets will increase rapidly. By the middle of this decade, the infeasibility of the 2050 targets will be realised. We cannot set targets for 2050, as it will be far too late. According to global equity, Ireland should be hitting 0% emissions by approximately 2025. That shows just how far behind we are in trying to achieve our targets.

The fines are one matter, but if we seize the opportunity and lean into this challenge, we will see the creation of jobs and livelihoods and a distribution of opportunity across the country. That is what we are missing out on currently. A fine of €7 billion would be a hefty sum - I took the figure from the carbon brief - but it pales in comparison to the opportunity cost.