Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 3 June 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Budget Priorities Exiting Covid-19 Pandemic: Discussion

Dr. Stephen Kinsella:

I thank the Vice Chairman. I have three main points. I have been writing about the risks to Ireland's business model from changes to international corporation tax since 2011. I am someone who believes there is both an upside risk and a downside risk to increased corporation tax revenues. It could well be the case, for example, that changes in the international tax regime increase the State's corporate taxation revenue. Thus there is an upside risk to us from corporation tax changes simply because the devil is never in the dynamic when it comes to tax; it is in the detail. As such, that is a key issue. If that happens, we will end up in a situation where a larger percentage of our overall tax take comes from one source, which is fundamentally unstable. One of the great virtues of wealth taxes is they tend to be quite stable. These are income taxes and they fluctuate with business cycles. As it happens, the Irish structural situation is such that when things go badly for the domestic economy the international part of the economy, the multinational part, ends up saving the day. This in part explains the post-austerity period and what explains the current state of the State's finances now.

On the second part of the question about whether there is a risk to the economy such that we need a new industrial strategy, I find myself in violent agreement with the Vice Chairman. It is high time we consider the generation of a new industrial strategy that does not substitute for, but complements, the one that has existed since 1958.

To the third part of her question, there is a way to tie in the structural transformation supports around digitalisation, decarbonisation and particularly restructuring the workforce that are coming from the European Commission, with the need to transfer to this new industrial strategy. I would very much like to see that happening. For example, I am aware there is an artificial intelligence, AI, strategy coming. We should have had an AI strategy five years ago when one was promised to us. AI is not some fancy thing that young fellas on the docks with goatees get to use, it is a very important business-to-business technology and we as a country do not yet have a strategy for AI, and it is just one transformative technology. Thus, I agree with the Vice Chairman 100%.

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