Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 3 June 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Budget Priorities Exiting Covid-19 Pandemic: Discussion

Dr. Stephen Kinsella:

I will mention three things here.

We discussed hysteresis, which causes larger than expected levels of unemployment. It creates a vast retraining problem. The Deputy asked in particular about capacity constraints. The labour supply capacity constraint is solved using retraining.

As to whether we are in the middle of an industrial revolution, we absolutely are but it relates to energy generation. By the time this decade is over, we will be in a situation where the majority of energy generated in this country will be renewable. That is a sea change. The last time that happened was in the 1940s, with the opening of Ardnacrusha. It is genuinely amazing. How those energy generation technologies alter the social, economic and urban fabric are all open questions that people smarter than me will be able to answer. We are in the middle of an industrial revolution.

The ESRI report specifically examines how to borrow more to incentivise and invest under conditions of very low interest rates. The point the ESRI is making is that should the Government decide to spend more on this issue, it can do so. That is the important point. However, the report, which I have only read once this morning and so cannot claim expertise on - one normally needs to read something three times before really understanding it------

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